The Ridge

My world was data. Logic. Trying to find certainty and a guarantee. But I learned a hard truth: certainty is an illusion.

I was going to a ridge in Pirin Mountain, Bulgaria. It was known to be a difficult route, especially in bad weather.

From below, the weather was sunny, but I could see that the top was surrounded by clouds. The forecast said that by the time I reached the top, the weather would be good.

So I started. One hour down the trail a man was hurrying back. He was dressed like an arctic explorer and looked experienced.

"How's the weather up at the ridge?" I asked.

"Oh, it's hell up there, man!" he replied, breathing heavily. "The freezing wind is 50 km per hour. I fought to walk forward, but it pushed me back. So I decided to turn back."

I decided to keep going and give it a chance. Two hours later I met another man coming down.

"It's doable," he said. "If you are crazy." Then he added: "I decided not to cross the ridge and to go back."

We laughed it off. He kept going down and I kept going up. But I was starting to have doubts.

I already had two negative data points from people who had been up there a few hours earlier. Their experiences were subjectively bad. I checked the forecast again. It still said the wind would die down by the time I arrived.

Should I listen to the two warnings? Or should I risk it and continue?

That is when I realised: in business, and in life, we make decisions like this every day. We are surrounded by noise - conflicting advice, confusing data, and our own fears on top of it all.

But in the end we have to choose. Otherwise we are stuck in analysis paralysis. We either give in to the fear, or we step forward guided by imperfect data and a pinch of gut feeling.

So I continued. And I reached the ridge. I stood there in quiet sunshine and looked at the great blue mountains.

Sometimes we do not have enough data. Sometimes the data is confusing. But it is our job to use it as well as we can. That is what The Data Arsenal is for.